Last week in my night class (cognitive psych) towards the beginning we talked vaguely about hindsight bias and confidence. The example we used was to predict who will win the upcoming Presidential election. No one really knew. No condidate had too clear of a bias. To demonstrate the point, K. called out Hillary for the sake of moving the class forward. "How confident are you?" Dr. D.H. asked. I think she said something like 30%.
Last Wednesday, the morning after class, CNN announced that Oprah is now officially endorsing. Let's consider Oprah's track record of endorsement:
On the first day, Oprah declined eating a hamburger and cripple the meat industry. and they apologized to her.
On the second Day, Dr. Phil appeared as a guest on Oprah's show. He moved on to get a segment of Oprah's show regularly, and now has his own show and mini empire.
On the third day, Oprah acted in The Color Purple. I didn't even have to see the movie to know she was in it. I did, however, have to see it to know that Whoopie Goldberg is in it and WHOOPIE IS THE ACTUAL ACTOR BY TRADE. The Color Purple has a broadway show, shows regularly on tv (lifetime/oxygen), and has its own mini empire and cause.
on the 4th day, Oprah watched The Food Network, saw Rachel Ray, and commanded that Rachel Ray would have her own daytime television talk show. and it was so.
on the 5th day Oprah opened a school in Africa. she refers to the schoolchildren there as "her kids"
on the 6th day, Oprah publicly endorsed Obama
If on Wednesday I had been asked who will be the next president, I would have declared with 95% confidence that Obama will be. because of his political agenda? because he's a democrat? because he's been on the Daily Show a whole bunch?
No. Because Oprah will make it so.
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